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    An analysis of regime shifts in the Turkish economy
    (Elsevier, 2008) Yilmazkuday, Hakan; Akay, Koray
    We use a time-varying dynamic factor model with regime switching to construct and estimate the leading indicators of the currency crises in Turkey. After that, we analyze the business cycles of the Turkish economy, by using a three-state univariate Markov-switching model. Both models capture the observed dynamics of the Turkish economy over the period 1987-2002. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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    INDETERMINACY IN CASH-IN-ADVANCE MODELS AND THE ROLE OF FRICTIONS
    (Cambridge Univ Press, 2010) Akay, Koray
    A monetary cash-in-advance model is known to be prone to real indeterminacy if the intertemporal elasticity of substitution in consumption is sufficiently low. Moreover, if the model features habit formation in consumption, the scope of indeterminacy increases substantially. This paper shows that many of the nominal frictions and real rigidities commonly used in the New Keynesian paradigm act to decrease the scope of this indeterminacy. These frictions include stickiness in prices and wages, adjustment costs in investment, and variable capacity utilization. When they are all used together in the model, the problem of indeterminacy nearly vanishes, even when habit formation in consumption is allowed.