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    Evaluating the effect of geopolitical risks on the growth rates of emerging countries
    (Economics Bulletin, 2019) Soybilgen, Baris; Kaya, Huseyin; Dedeoglu, Dincer
    In this study, we analyze the relationship between geopolitical risks and growth using annual panel data from 18 emerging countries for the period from 1986 to 2016. For a robustness check, we use panel data with 5-year intervals. The news-based indices of Caldara and Iacoviello (2018) were used as a proxy for geopolitical risks. Our results show that the effect of geopolitical risks on growth rates is negative and significant. A 10 point increase in the geopolitical risk index causes a 0.2-0.4% decline in the GDP growth rate.
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    Probability Forecasts of Macroaggregates in the Turkish Economy
    (Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2014) Kaya, Huseyin; Yazgan, M. Ege
    We provide probability forecasts of key Turkish macroeconomic variables such as inflation and output growth. The probability forecasts are derived from a core vector error correction model of the Turkish economy and its several variants. We use model and window averaging to address uncertainties arising from estimated models and possible structural breaks. The performances of the different models and their combinations are evaluated using relevant forecast accuracy tests in different pseudo out-of-sample settings. The results indicate that successful directional forecasts can be obtained for output growth and inflation. Averaging over both the models and the estimation windows improves the level of accuracy of the forecasts.